The Turret

Going into episode 3

These were worked out after the episode aired, from what was known before it.

Who do the Traitors murder next?

  1. Hannah Fry

    The Oracle: Only unshielded Faithful; Traitors almost certain to target her.

    50%
  2. Jerry Hall

    The Oracle: Also unshielded; equal prime target alongside Hannah Fry.

    50%

Who goes at the round table?

  1. Richard E. Grant

    The Oracle: Original Traitor; theatrical manner can draw suspicion.

    6%
  2. Maya Jama

    The Oracle: Original Traitor; glamorous profile could attract suspicion.

    6%
  3. James Acaster

    The Oracle: Recruited Traitor; new alliance could look shifty to others.

    6%
  4. Michael Sheen

    The Oracle: High-profile; vocal players often early banishment targets.

    5%
  5. Jerry Hall

    The Oracle: No prior votes; flat suspicion across large unvoted group.

    5%

Who wins?

  1. Maya Jama

    The Oracle: Original Traitor; shielded, strategic; prime Traitor winner candidate.

    19%
  2. Richard E. Grant

    The Oracle: Original Traitor; shielded, experienced, top Traitor winner pick.

    19%
  3. Julie Hesmondhalgh

    The Oracle: Faithful; trusted, strategic, shielded; strong win candidate.

    12%
  4. Bella Ramsey

    The Oracle: Faithful; needs Traitors out; decent chance if she reaches final.

    12%
  5. Joanne McNally

    The Oracle: Faithful; shielded, sociable, reasonable win chance.

    12%

Which side takes the prize?

TraitorsFaithfuls

Traitors won three of the five earlier UK series.

How the odds have moved

Each player’s chance of winning, as the consensus saw it going into each episode.

0%5%10%15%20%Ep 2Ep 3Maya19%Richard19%Bella12%Julie12%Joe12%Michael12%

The six likeliest are named. Red lines are Traitors. Pick anyone else to light up their line:

How the calls have gone

  • Consensus

    None of one called exactly, one of one in the top three.

    All worked out afterwards, from what was known before each episode.

    Each call
    • Going into episode 2, who is murdered: it was Amol Rajan, ranked 2 at 50%.

  • The Model

    None of one called exactly, one of one in the top three.

    All worked out afterwards, from what was known before each episode.

    Each call
    • Going into episode 2, who is murdered: it was Amol Rajan, ranked 2 at 50%.

  • The Oracle

    None of one called exactly, one of one in the top three.

    All worked out afterwards, from what was known before each episode.

    Each call
    • Going into episode 2, who is murdered: it was Amol Rajan, ranked 2 at 50%.

A gold mark is a call that was exactly right; a ring is one that had the answer in its top three. A random pick would be exactly right about 50% of the time.

The Model is a scorecard over the votes so far. The Oracle is a language model reading the same facts and the week’s coverage. Neither has seen any episode that has not aired. Five earlier series is a small sample: expect misses.