Going into episode 5
Who do the Traitors murder next?
Only these players can be murdered next.
Romesh RanganathanThe Oracle: On open shortlist, no shield; vocal Faithful, threat to Traitors.
34%
Ross KempThe Oracle: On shortlist, no shield; viral 'get in there' moment signals Traitor-hunting threat.
33%
Rob BeckettThe Oracle: On open shortlist, no shield; Traitors avoid suspects, Rob has none.
33%
Who goes at the round table?
Hannah FryThe Oracle: 6 votes last table; huge target, spreadsheet story may refocus suspicion on her.
31%
Jerry HallThe Oracle: 'Bonkers' gameplay confusing players; Miranda's 'Jerry world' comment fuels suspicion.
10%
James AcasterThe Oracle: Fans convinced he slipped and revealed Traitor status at roundtable.
7%
James BluntThe Oracle: Minor votes received; no strong suspicion wave yet.
6%
Michael SheenThe Oracle: Voted for by Acaster; could attract attention but low recent votes.
5%
Who wins?
Maya JamaThe Oracle: Original Traitor, zero suspicion, best player per Independent; top win candidate.
28%
Joanne McNallyThe Oracle: Faithful; clean record and good final odds.
16%
Miranda HartThe Oracle: Faithful; praised detective work; fan favourite with solid game.
16%- Michael Sheen
The Oracle: Faithful; strategic but not dominant.
15% 
Sharon RooneyThe Oracle: Faithful; clean slate, quiet strength.
15%
Which side takes the prize?
Traitors won three of the five earlier UK series.
How the odds have moved
Each player’s chance of winning, as the consensus saw it going into each episode.
The six likeliest are named. Red lines are Traitors. Pick anyone else to light up their line:
How the calls have gone
Consensus
None of five called exactly, four of five in the top three.
All worked out afterwards, from what was known before each episode.
Each call
- Going into episode 2, who is banished: it was Richard E. Grant, ranked 2 at 6%.
- Going into episode 2, who is murdered: it was Amol Rajan, ranked 2 at 50%.
- Going into episode 3, who is banished: it was Richard E. Grant, ranked 3 at 6%.
- Going into episode 4, who is banished: it was Julie Hesmondhalgh, ranked 3 at 7%.
- Going into episode 4, who is murdered: it was Bella Ramsey, ranked 9 at 7%.
The Model
None of five called exactly, four of five in the top three.
All worked out afterwards, from what was known before each episode.
Each call
- Going into episode 2, who is banished: it was Richard E. Grant, ranked 2 at 6%.
- Going into episode 2, who is murdered: it was Amol Rajan, ranked 2 at 50%.
- Going into episode 3, who is banished: it was Richard E. Grant, ranked 3 at 6%.
- Going into episode 4, who is banished: it was Julie Hesmondhalgh, ranked 3 at 8%.
- Going into episode 4, who is murdered: it was Bella Ramsey, ranked 9 at 7%.
The Oracle
None of five called exactly, one of five in the top three.
All worked out afterwards, from what was known before each episode.
Each call
- Going into episode 2, who is banished: it was Richard E. Grant, ranked 14 at 5%.
- Going into episode 2, who is murdered: it was Amol Rajan, ranked 2 at 50%.
- Going into episode 3, who is banished: it was Richard E. Grant, ranked 4 at 6%.
- Going into episode 4, who is banished: it was Julie Hesmondhalgh, ranked 7 at 6%.
- Going into episode 4, who is murdered: it was Bella Ramsey, ranked 12 at 7%.
A gold mark is a call that was exactly right; a ring is one that had the answer in its top three. A random pick would be exactly right about 14% of the time.
The Model is a scorecard over the votes so far. The Oracle is a language model reading the same facts and the week’s coverage. Neither has seen any episode that has not aired. Five earlier series is a small sample: expect misses.